The greenback has been moving higher recently, trying to settle above the psychological level of 110 threshold and again testing the medium-term bearish trend line, limiting the pair’s movement since the summer.
The medium-term trend remains neutral as the pair has not moved anywhere since April, and we need to see some momentum to either side before a new direction can be established.
It looks like the USDJPY pair is forming a consolidation triangle pattern, which could help to start a trend in a breakout/breakdown scenario.
Once bulls push the pair above the 110.40 zone, we could see some upward momentum toward the current cycle highs near 111.70. Alternatively, should the pair decline below 109.20, a sharper decline toward 108.40 could occur.
US yields, which tend to drive the USDJPY pair, have been moving sideways since July, explaining the lack of trend in the USDJPY pair. However, should the 10-year yield rise above 1.4%, it could start another leg higher toward 1.5%, possibly sending the USDJPY to the mentioned resistance of 111.70.