Weekly Market Commentary | 28.11 – 04.12

Wondering what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

Monday>

– Monday already started with the dovish speech from the RBA Governor and the weaker-than-expected retail sales data from Australia

– Later, during the day, we will have speeches from central bankers from ECB and FED, including the ECB President – Lagarde.

Tuesday>

– Tuesday will bring us the GDP data from Canada, where we are expecting the same number as in the previous month, 0.1%

– European session will end with a speech from BoE Governor Bailey and CB Consumer Confidence data from the US

Wednesday>

– Wednesday will be a bit busier with the ADP data being served as a warm-up before the NFP on Friday. Experts are expecting a mediocre number of 200K compared to the one from the previous month 239K.

– 15 minutes after the ADP, we will find out the prelim GDP number from the US, which is expected to rise 2.8% compared to the 2.6% reported the previous month.

– The day will end with a speech from the FED Chairman Jerome Powell

Thursday>

– On Thursday, the European session will start with the Swiss CPI data, which compared to the rest of the world should be small but it’s becoming a concern in Switzerland.

– During the American session, data worth looking at will be the PCE Price Index and ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to drop below the golden level of 50.

Friday>

– Friday will be by far the busiest day of the week

– Day will start with the central bankers from Antipodes, both RBA and RBNZ head giving their remarks on the monetary policies and economies.

– Crème de la crème will be NFP data from the US, where experts are forecasting to see the same number as the ADP from Wednesday.

– As usual, Canadian job market data will be also published but economists do not have high expectations there

Setups for This Week:

Brent Oil

Primary View:

Last week was pretty hectic, with the whipsaw move on Monday

This Monday brings us a pretty solid drop, which breaks crucial, mid-term support on the 84 USD/bbl

As long as we are below this area (blue), sentiment is negative

Alternative View:

Price coming back above 84 USD/bbl will cancel the negative sentiment on Oil

GBPNZD

Primary View:

GBPNZD was inside a symmetric triangle pattern (blue) since the beginning of November

Monday brings us a bullish breakout, which means a proper buy signal

The next target is on a crucial, long-term resistance on the 1.955 (yellow)

Alternative View:

Price coming back inside of the triangle would mean a legitimate sell signal

GBPJPY

Primary View:

Last week was very technical for this instrument

GBPJPY escaped from the flag (black lines) to the downside and created a Head and Shoulders pattern (yellow)

Today, sellers already managed to break the neckline of this formation (orange), which brings us a mid-term sell signal

Alternative View:

Price coming back above the neckline would cancel the bearish sentiment