Weekly Market Commentary | 12.12 – 18.12

Wondering what’s going on this week? Take a quick tour of our market news, economic updates, and trading setups to stay up-to-date and in the know.

Monday>

– Monday started with a pack of data from the UK where most of the numbers exceeded expectations, including the GDP, as well as industrial and manufacturing production (both expected to come negative).

– At the end of the American session, we will hear a few words from the BoC Governor Macklem.

Tuesday>

– Tuesday brings a speech from the BoE Governor Bailey.

– The most important number in the calendar will be the CPI from the US where a decline is expected. Monthly, the number of 0.3% is anticipated and y/y analysts are predicting to see 7.3% rise instead of previously seen 7.7%.

– The day will end with a speech from the RBA Governor Lowe.

Wednesday>

– The UK inflation will be presented on Wednesday with expected 10.9%, suggesting a decline from the previous month where the inflation came at 11.1%.

– Wednesday will be all about the FED interest rate decision, where we are expecting a 50bp rise from 4% to 4.5%. Apart from that, you can look forward to a statement, economic projections and a press conference.

-The day will end with a GDP number from New Zealand.

Thursday>

– If you find Wednesday busy, wait to see what Thursday offers!

– The day will start with job data from Australia before moving on to the interest rate decision (probably a 50bp rise) from Switzerland.

– 50 bp will probably be a call from the BoE as well, who shall present their decision a few hours after the SNB.

– The ECB is also expected to hike 50bp. When was the last time this happened?

– But wait, there’s more! Thursday will also be the day of retail sales data from the US that are expected to come really low.

Friday>

– Friday will be a PMI day, with the key PMI from the EU, UK, and US.

Setups for This Week:

GBPUSD

Primary View:

The pair reached a key, long-term horizontal resistance

This is the 50% retracement of the downtrend but also the key resistance from June and August

Price bouncing off this level will give a nice sell signal

Alternative View:

If the price breaks the 50% Fibo, we will get a proper buy signal

EURGBP

Primary View:

Sellers keep pressure on the 0.858 which is a key level for this pair in the long-term

Better data from the UK add selling pressure on Monday morning

Price closing the day below the mentioned support will give us a proper sell signal

Alternative View:

Price decisively bouncing off this support will give a signal to buy

EURAUD

Primary View:

EURAUD almost broke out of the sideways trend last week but the bullish attack was unsuccessful (green)

Price is back in the rectangle but still above key horizontal support on the 1.53

As long as we stay above, the sentiment remains positive

Alternative View:

If the price breaks 1.53, we will get a major sell signal