Weekly Market Commentary | 13.02 – 19.02

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

Monday>

– The only important data on Monday had already been published before the start of the European trading. It was the CPI from Switzerland who was expected to come at 0.5%, with the final result of 0.6%

Tuesday>

– Tuesday is an eagerly awaited day as this is when the inflation number from the US shall be published. CPI m/m is expected to come at 0.5%, while the yearly inflation is expected at 6.2%.

– The day will end with speeches by three FOMC Members Logan, Harker, and Williams

Wednesday>

– Wednesday will start with a speech from the RBA Governor Lowe

– We will also get another batch of CPI data, but this time from the UK, where 10.3% (y/y) is expected.

– The busiest day of this week will end with the Retail Sales data and Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US. Retail Sales is expected to bounce back after the plunge recorded in the previous month

Thursday>

– We will start with the job data from Australia, where the creation of 20K new jobs is expected

– Before the American session, we will learn the producer’s inflation (PPI) from the US

– The day will end with another speech from RBA Governor Lowe

Friday>

– Friday will be an eerily quiet day with the Retails Sales from the UK opening and closing the macro calendar for this day

Setups for This Week:

EURCHF

Primary View:

At the beginning of the previous week, EURCHF escaped the wedge pattern (blue), which resumed the downtrend

Buyers were unable to perform a counterattack, which increases the chances of a further slide

The target is on the September lows

Alternative View:

The price coming back above the blue resistance would mean a cancelation of the sell signal

Gold

Primary View:

In the last week, Gold created a proper, mid-term sell signal

The price broke the green up-trendline and escaped the flag formation (black)

As long as we stay below, the sentiment is negative

Alternative View:

Gold climbing back above the green up-trendline would be an invitation to go long

USDCAD

Primary View:

On Friday, USDCAD was rocked by awesome job data from Canada

In the long term, the price is still inside of the symmetric triangle pattern (black) but this week, we should get a breakout

The price breaking to the upside would be a legitimate signal to go long

Alternative View:

USDCAD breaking through the blue and black dynamic supports and a yellow horizontal one would be a proper signal to sell