Weekly Market Commentary | 13.03 – 19.03

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

Monday:

• The economic calendar is empty today, but all eyes are on the US and the latest developments with the SVB.

Tuesday:

• Tuesday will start with the Claimant Count Change from the UK, with a 12.5K rise expected.
• The key data that day will be the inflation in the US, with a drop to 6% expected.

Wednesday:

• Wednesday has important data from China, where we will find out the industrial production and retail sales numbers.
• The UK will also release their annual budget.
• Key numbers will come from the US as we will find out the PPI, Retail Sales, and the Empire Manufacturing Index. All numbers are expected to be lower than the previous month.
• A busy day will end with the GDP number from New Zealand, where a decline of 0.2% is expected.

Thursday:

• We will start early, with the job data from Australia, which is expected to be good, with 49.7K added jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.6%.
• On Thursday, we should also see the 50bp rate rise in the Eurozone together with the statement and the press conference.

Friday:

• Friday will be fairly quiet, and the key data of the day will be the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Setups for This Week:

DAX:

Primary View:

• Indices start this week on the front foot despite the turmoil caused by the SVB.
• The DAX bounces off a key horizontal support at 15250.
• We are also back above the up trendline, so sentiment is positive.

Alternative View:

• If the price drops below the 15250 support, it will be a proper signal to sell.

AUDUSD:

Primary View:

• The pair is currently in the long-term downtrend, but Monday brings us a bullish correction.
• AUDUSD is currently testing the downtrend line (red), which is a good occasion to sell.

Alternative View:

• AUDUSD breaking the red downtrend line will be an occasion to go long, but only the breakout of the 0.67 (blue) will give us a proper buy signal.

GBPUSD:

Primary View:

• Cable eventually defended the 1.192 support, which was a key one in the long-term.
• The price also broke the upper line of the wedge, which was limiting the latest correction.
• The target is on the green resistance above the 1.24 mark.

Alternative View:

• Cable dropping below the 1.192 will be a proper signal to sell, but chances for that are rather limited.