Weekly Market Commentary | 12.06 – 18.06

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

Monday>

– The only notable data point is the producer inflation figures from Japan coming in at 5.1%, which is lower than the expected 5.6%

Tuesday>

– The day is set to begin with the UK’s Claimant Count Change, expected to drop to 4.1% from the previously reported 4.9%

– The most important data, by a long shot, will be the CPI from the US, expected to drop to 4.1 y/y

– Tuesday will then conclude with a speech by the Bank of England’s Governor Bailey

Wednesday>

– We’ll start Wednesday with the release of the UK GDP data, predicted to be at 0.2%

– Later on, as the US session begins, we’ll see the Producers’ Inflation figure, also forecast at 0.2%

– The US Federal Reserve is expected to announce its interest rate decision with rates likely to remain steady at 5.25%. A statement and a press conference will follow

Thursday>

– Thursday will kick off with the release of New Zealand’s GDP data which is expected to be slightly negative at -0.1%

– The job data from Australia and China’s industrial production, anticipated at 3.5%, are also on the docket

– The interest rate decision from the Eurozone is expected later in the day, with an expected increase of 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 4%

– On the US front, we’ll see the release of retail sales data and the usual unemployment claims

– The day is set to wrap up with an ECB press conference

Friday>

– The week will wind down with another interest rate decision, this time from Japan, where the rates are likely to remain unchanged

– The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data from the US is scheduled for release and it’s expected to come in slightly above 60, at 60.2

Setups for This Week:

Dow Jones

Primary View:

June started with the price on the lower line of the big symmetric triangle pattern but now, the price is testing the upper line of this formation

A breakout to the upside will be a proper signal to buy

Alternative View:

If the price bounces off the upper line, a mid-term slide could be expected

USDJPY

Primary View:

A similar situation can be spotted on the USDJPY but here, instead of a large triangle, we have a smaller pennant

The price is inside and we are awaiting a breakout

A breakout to the upside (in line with the trend) will give us a signal to buy

Alternative View:

USDJPY breaking the lower line of the pennant will be an invitation to go short

USDCAD

Primary View:

This week’s newsletter is all about triangles and pennants. On the USDCAD, the price is currently on the lower line of the triangle and a breakout to the downside can bring a proper signal to sell

Chances of that are quite significant. The price shows bearish inclinations, as the upper line of the triangle has not been tested for a while

Alternative View:

The USDCAD bouncing off the lower line of the triangle will give us a proper signal to go long

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-12-06-18-06