Weekly Market Commentary | 18.09 – 24.09

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

Monday

A placid start to our week. Traders can ease into their routines as there is:

• • No tier one data set to release.
  • A day of rest for the Japanese market as it remains closed.

Tuesday

We can expect a subtle spike in market activity with:

• • Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Australia kicking things off.
  • Canada steps into the spotlight with anticipated inflation numbers:
    • A potential dip in the CPI is forecast, dropping from 0.6% to a mere 0.1% on a monthly basis.

Wednesday

Hold onto your hats, as Wednesday promises a roller-coaster ride for traders:

• • The UK’s inflation number is on the rise, predicted to jump from 6.8% to 7.1%.
  • All eyes will be on the US for the much-anticipated interest rate decision. The consensus is, however, that the Fed will remain steady, keeping the rates at 5.5%.
  • Alongside the rate decision, we are eagerly awaiting economic projections, FOMC statement, and a press conference.

Thursday

The momentum continues, making Thursday another pivotal day in our financial week:

• • New Zealand sets the tone with its GDP, where a growth of 0.4% is projected.
  • Interest rates dominate the day’s agenda:
    • Switzerland might raise the stakes with market whispers suggesting a 25-basis point jump to 2%.
    • Not to be outdone, the UK is also in the rate race, with forecasts hinting at a similar 25-basis-point hike to 5.5%.
  • Across the pond, unemployment claims from the US will cap off the day. Predictions are hovering around the 222K mark.

Friday

• Wrapping up the week, Friday reads as a blend of interest rates and index insights:
  • Japan’s interest rate decision is up first, where the status quo is anticipated to prevail.
  • PMI readings become the day’s central theme:
    • Manufacturing and services PMIs of leading global economies will be unveiled. The forecast is, however, a bit gloomy, as almost all of them are projected to land below the 50 mark.
  • Canada rounds off the week with their retail sales numbers.

Setups for This Week:

S&P 500

Primary View:

• The index has sculpted a bearish engulfing pattern, highlighted in yellow.
• This recent movement has been a reaction to the upper boundary of the triangle.
• Such bearish sentiments hint towards a potential decline this week, all eyes set on the lower edge of the symmetric triangle pattern.

Alternative View:

• Should the price breach the upper red line, it would provide a compelling signal to lean towards the long side.

GBPCHF

Primary View:

• Current movements illustrate a sideways trajectory.
• As the week unfolds, we will have witnessed a rebound from the pivotal, long-term horizontal support at 1.11.
• Given that the price is hovering above this support, any bullish pattern taking shape here would suggest an enticing buy opportunity.

Alternative View:

• If the price were to slice through the green support, it’d provide a compelling long-term indication to adopt a short position.

Gold

Primary View:

• Gold remains resilient, having successfully held the fort at the $1900 support level.
• Presently, the focus is on challenging the upper boundary of the flag formation, delineated by the black line.
• A conclusive day above this black marker would translate into a robust signal to go long, with the 23.6% Fibonacci level serving as a prospective target.

Alternative View:

• Conversely, if the prices settle below the defined orange zone by the day’s close, it would signal traders to consider short positions.