Weekly Market Commentary | 25.09 – 30.09

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

Monday:

• German IFO Business Climate: A key indicator to start the week, anticipated to come in at 85.1.
• ECB President Lagarde Speech: Wrapping up the European session, all ears will be on Christine Lagarde for insights and possible directives by the European Central Bank.

Tuesday:

• U.S. CB Consumer Confidence: Forecasts indicate a reading of 105.5.
• U.S. New Home Sales: Another critical insight into the U.S. housing market.

Wednesday:

• Australia’s CPI: Uncharacteristically, Wednesday seems quiet, but not without its highlights. The inflation number from Down Under is in focus, with expectations of a rise from 4.9% to 5.2%.
• U.S. Durable Goods Orders: A key metric showcasing demand for longer-lasting U.S. manufactured goods.

Thursday:

• Australia’s Retail Sales: Kicking things off.
• German Prelim CPI: Predictions point to a 0.3% rise.
• Spanish Flash CPI: All eyes will be on Spain with expectations of 3.5%.
• U.S. Final GDP: The GDP number for the U.S. will be crucial. Analysts are predicting a figure of 2.3%.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Speech: Possibly the highlight of the day. With recent Fed decisions, any comments by Powell will be scrutinized heavily.

Friday:

• Canada’s GDP: Forecasts aren’t optimistic, with a projection of a -0.1% drop.
• Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Expected to come in at 67.7.

Setups for This Week:

EURGBP

Primary View:

• • The price successfully completed the double bottom formation (green), breaking free from its previous sideways trend.
  • A significant resistance break occurred at 0.865 (highlighted in yellow), signaling a strong bullish momentum.
  • An immediate target is set at 0.873, but the double bottom’s full potential suggests an even higher target.
• Alternative View:
  • If the price falls back below the yellow resistance at 0.865, it will trigger a sell signal.

S&P 500

• Primary View:
  • The index has moved out of the symmetric triangle (bound by red lines) in a downward direction, prompting a sell-off.
  • The target stemming from this breakout aligns with the blue uptrend line.
• Alternative View:
  • A return inside the triangle pattern would generate a buy signal.

USDCHF

• Primary View:

• • The currency pair has met a critical horizontal resistance at 0.91, indicated in green hue. This zone provides a suitable point for short positions, especially if bearish candlestick patterns manifest.
• Alternative View:
  • If the price successfully breaks and sustains above the green resistance at 0.91, it will present an attractive long-term buy opportunity.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-25-09-30-09