Weekly Market Commentary | 18.03 – 24.03

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!

Monday:

• China’s industrial production leaps to a robust 7%, shattering expectations of a 5.3% rise, hinting at the dragon economy’s roaring comeback.
• Retail sales from China hold steady, meeting forecasts at 5.5%, suggesting a balanced consumer confidence in the Asian giant.

Tuesday:

• Japan’s central bank to hold its ground on interest rates amidst swirling rumors of ditching negative rates – not just yet, though.
• Down under in Australia, rates are pegged to remain at a cozy 4.35%, even as the economic landscape evolves.
• Canada’s inflation radar is set to tick at 0.6% for the month, a figure keenly eyed by maple leaf market watchers.

Wednesday:

• The UK’s inflation gauge is predicted to notch up to 3.5%, stirring the pot of economic forecasts and monetary adjustments.
• Over in the US, the Federal Reserve stands pat, expectedly, at 5.5%. Yet, all eyes and ears are trained on the FOMC’s buffet of statements, press releases, and economic projections, deciphering the Fed’s fiscal path.
• New Zealand’s GDP, poised for a modest 0.1% uptick, rounds off an action-packed Wednesday.

Thursday:

• A global PMI showcase takes center stage, painting the manufacturing and services landscape across leading economies.
• Job numbers from Australia are up for grabs, alongside Switzerland and the UK’s interest rate verdicts, promising a day bustling with pivotal data points.

Friday:

• UK retail sales are forecasted to take a slight 0.3% dip, a statistic that will undoubtedly stir discussions on consumer spending trends.
• Jerome Powell steps up to the podium once more, closing the week with insights that could ripple through markets and trading strategies.

Setups for This Week:

Brent Oil

• Primary View:
  • The price recently broke free from a symmetric triangle and a lateral consolidation zone, signified by an orange line, with an upward movement.
  • This upward breakout signals a buy opportunity, underpinned as long as the price remains above the triangle’s upper boundary.
• Alternative View:
  • Should the price retract into the triangle, this re-entry would suggest a false breakout, turning the signal towards a potential sell.

EURNZD

• Primary View:
  • Following a breach of the mid-term downtrend line, the currency pair is now testing the strength of a yellow horizontal resistance.
  • A successful ascent past this barrier would confirm a bullish stance, advocating for a buy.
• Alternative View:
  • A regression below the freshly surpassed green dynamic resistance could invert the outlook, presenting a cue for selling.

CHFJPY

• Primary View:
  • A constructive inverse head and shoulders pattern, highlighted in yellow, has concluded with a breakout above its neckline, offering a bullish signal.
  • The ensuing goal is to tackle the orange horizontal resistance, maintaining the buy momentum.
• Alternative View:
  • Falling back beneath the delineated blue neckline would negate the bullish premise, shifting the bias towards selling.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-18-03-24-03