Payrolls in Focus After US Job Market Weakness Signals

Hello traders, welcome to Friday — and not just any Friday, but non-farm payroll Friday, the most important day of the month for the markets.

Thursday brought a wave of data and plenty of market reaction. In Switzerland, inflation came in lower than expected at -0.1%, pressuring the franc. Across the Atlantic, the US labor market showed cracks: the ADP non-farm employment change was just 54,000, far below forecasts, while jobless claims ticked higher to 237,000, adding to the picture of a cooling jobs market. The one bright spot came from services, where the ISM Services PMI surprised positively at 52, giving equities some much-needed support.

Markets digested these mixed signals with caution. US indices sold off early but recovered strongly into the close, as traders looked ahead to today’s payrolls. Meanwhile, oil slumped further, extending its week-long decline and printing fresh lows, while gold remained firm and continued to attract safe-haven flows.

Friday morning starts with fresh momentum from Europe. The UK retail sales report delivered a strong surprise at 0.6% vs. 0.3% expected, lifting sterling in early trade. Futures on European and US indices are opening mixed, with some hesitation ahead of the jobs data. In currencies, the US dollar is easing slightly after Thursday’s strength, while the Swiss franc remains under pressure. Commodities are split — gold is steady near recent highs, while oil remains on the defensive.

All eyes now turn to the US session, where the non-farm payrolls report will set the tone for the rest of the day — and possibly the rest of the month. With expectations at just 74,000 new jobs, an unusually low figure, volatility could spike sharply if the number surprises in either direction.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/market-news/payrolls-in-focus-after-us-job-market-weakness-sig