Macro Heavy Thursday as Commodities and Crypto Slide

Welcome to Thursday, and let’s take a look at what is driving markets right now. The starting point today has to be oil. Crude had a very strong session yesterday, supported by renewed geopolitical concerns in the Middle East related to Iran. Donald Trump stated that Iran’s supreme leader should be “very worried,” and additional reports from US officials suggested that plans for nuclear talks with Iran are collapsing. This flow of negative headlines lifted oil prices sharply. Although we saw a pullback toward the end of the US session, the broader sentiment on oil remains clearly positive.

Today’s macro calendar is heavy. We will get interest rate decisions from the UK and the Eurozone, with no changes expected in either case. In addition, markets will hear from central bankers via speeches from the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Overall, this sets the stage for a busy and potentially volatile day across asset classes.

On the earnings side, yesterday after the market close we saw results from Google. Earnings beat expectations, but the stock is trading around 2.7% lower in pre-market, highlighting cautious positioning at elevated levels. Earlier yesterday, Eli Lilly reported earnings before the open, also beating expectations by a wide margin, and the stock surged roughly 10%. Today’s earnings calendar remains busy, with Amazon reporting after the market close and Shell publishing results before the market opens.

Looking at price action this morning, oil is correcting modestly after yesterday’s rally, trading around 2% lower during the Asian session. Despite this pullback, the broader structure remains constructive. Metals, however, are under much heavier pressure. Silver is the standout on the downside, currently down around 11%, which is a very aggressive move. Price is now approaching the yearly lows, and a break below Monday’s lows would open the door for fresh downside continuation.

Equity indices are relatively calm by comparison. Price action is sideways with a slight bearish tilt, but it is important to note that indices remain near elevated levels, suggesting consolidation rather than panic selling at this stage.

On the currency market, we are seeing a corrective move in the Japanese yen, which is gaining during the Asian session after being heavily sold earlier this year. Despite today’s rebound, the yen remains the weakest major currency in 2026 so far. At the same time, we see weakness in the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and most European currencies, while the US dollar is strengthening.

Finally, cryptocurrencies remain under significant pressure. Bitcoin and Ethereum are making new long-term lows, with Bitcoin extending losses and now trading at its lowest levels since early November 2024. A large head and shoulders pattern remains in play on Bitcoin, and momentum continues to favor sellers. If this structure follows through, a move toward and potentially below the 70,000 level cannot be ruled out, which would represent a major technical development.

Overall, Thursday opens with strong divergence across markets. Oil remains supported by geopolitics, metals are struggling, indices are consolidating, and crypto continues to suffer as risk appetite remains selective and fragile.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/market-news/macro-heavy-thursday-as-commodities-and-crypto-sli