Oil Stalls Near $100 as Traders Await Data

Wednesday brings a very important macro calendar, with several key events that can shape market direction.

The focus will be on US producer inflation data, followed by interest rate decisions from both Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. In both cases, no change in rates is expected. Market participants are currently pricing in near-zero probability of a move from the Fed, as policymakers have limited room to adjust rates in the current environment.

On the geopolitical front, Donald Trump remains confident regarding the situation involving Iran. He stated that the US is well ahead and that the conflict may last only a few more weeks. However, markets appear skeptical of this narrative.

Oil prices reflect that uncertainty. Crude is trading sideways around the $100 level, showing no strong directional conviction. If markets were fully confident in a quick resolution, we would likely see more decisive moves. Instead, price action suggests hesitation.

Other commodities are also in consolidation mode. Copper, gold, and silver have all been moving sideways over the past two days, waiting for a catalyst that could define the next move.

Equity indices are showing a more positive tone. After a strong session yesterday, markets are opening Wednesday on the green side and continuing the recovery that began on Monday. For now, that rebound is holding.

In the currency market, movements are relatively subdued. The standout performers are the antipodean currencies, with the Australian dollar showing notable strength. The New Zealand dollar and European currencies have also been gaining over the past few sessions.

On the other hand, North American currencies and the Japanese yen have been losing momentum. The US dollar, Canadian dollar, and yen are all weaker over the past three days, reflecting a shift in positioning as traders prepare for today’s key macro events.

Overall, markets are in a waiting mode. With major data and central bank decisions ahead, volatility may increase later in the day as traders react to incoming information.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/market-news/oil-stalls-near-100-as-traders-await-data