GBP/CAD on the Edge: Will the Uptrend Line Hold?

Among the weakest major currencies in recent weeks is undoubtedly the British Pound, and this weakness is clearly visible on the GBP/CAD chart. The Canadian Dollar, supported by stronger commodity-linked fundamentals and relative resilience, has outperformed its British counterpart, pushing GBP/CAD lower toward key technical levels.

Zooming in on the H4 chart, we observe the price now resting on a crucial red uptrend line, which connects higher lows since January — effectively marking the yearly uptrend. This trendline has already served as reliable support multiple times, including just yesterday. However, the pair remains under consistent bearish pressure, and the uptrend line is now under threat of a breakdown.

A break and close below this red support line would activate a strong sell signal, signaling that the long-term buyers have lost control and opening the path for a deeper retracement in the coming days.

Looking upward, the chart is clearly structured with two key horizontal resistance levels, both marked in orange:

• The first resistance was respected in February, capping earlier bullish attempts.

• The second, higher resistance, was relevant in both December and February, forming a well-tested ceiling for the pair.

A bullish reversal would require a clear bounce off the red trendline, followed by a breakout above both of these orange resistance levels. Only then would the sentiment shift decisively back to bullish. Until that happens, however, the pressure remains to the downside.

In summary:

• The red uptrend line is the line in the sand.

• A break below would trigger a sell-off.

• A rebound and break above resistance would be needed to change the sentiment to bullish.

• For now, the bias remains negative.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/technical-analysis/gbp-cad-on-the-edge-will-the-uptrend-line-hold