Delayed NFP Takes Center Stage on Wednesday

Welcome to Wednesday. Today the entire market focus is on the delayed January jobs report. Normally, non-farm payrolls are released on the first Friday of the month, but this time the publication falls on Wednesday, which adds an unusual twist to market positioning.

Expectations for non-farm payrolls stand at 66,000, up from the previously reported 50,000. Alongside payrolls, we will also receive average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate, both of which will be crucial for shaping expectations around Federal Reserve policy and dollar direction.

Looking back at yesterday’s data, US retail sales disappointed to the downside, reinforcing concerns about the strength of consumer demand. That softer print sets an interesting backdrop for today’s labor market data.

On the earnings side, today after the market close we will see results from Cisco and McDonald’s. Both reports could influence sentiment in their respective sectors, especially given the elevated positioning in US equities.

As we move through the middle of the European session, US futures are trading higher, suggesting a constructive tone ahead of the jobs report. In Europe, the picture is mixed. The DAX is under pressure, while indices such as the FTSE 100 and Poland’s WIG20 are pushing higher, reflecting selective risk appetite rather than a broad-based move.

On the currency market, we are seeing strength in the antipodean currencies, as well as gains in the Japanese yen. In contrast, the US dollar and the Canadian dollar are under pressure. This positioning suggests some caution ahead of the payrolls release, with traders adjusting exposure before the data.

In commodities, oil continues to climb, supported by renewed concerns over tensions between the United States and Iran. The geopolitical premium is once again visible in energy prices. Precious metals are also showing strength. Gold, silver, and other metals are attempting to recover from the sharp drop seen at the end of January, with buyers gradually stepping back into the market.

Overall, Wednesday is clearly defined by anticipation. With non-farm payrolls at the center of attention, today’s data will likely set the tone not only for the dollar and US yields, but also for broader risk sentiment across equities and commodities.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/market-news/delayed-nfp-takes-center-stage-on-wednesday