Friday Focus: Job Data from US and Canada to Steer Markets

Hello traders, welcome to the final trading day of the first full week of 2025. Thursday was a surprisingly quiet session, especially for a day that typically sees high volatility and significant data releases. The only notable numbers came from Australia and China. Retail sales in Australia fell short of expectations, landing at 0.8% versus the forecasted 1%. Meanwhile, inflation data from China came in at 0.1%, precisely in line with projections. With such limited macroeconomic catalysts, market movements were relatively muted.

Moving to Friday, the spotlight is firmly on the jobs market. The most crucial data of the week, non-farm payrolls from the US, is due later today, with expectations set at 164,000. Additionally, job data from Canada is anticipated, with employment change forecasted at 24.5k. These reports are likely to bring volatility across multiple markets, especially on the US dollar and Canadian dollar pairs.

Safe havens dominated on Thursday, with the Japanese yen continuing to show strength. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Canadian dollar lagged. This trend continues into Friday, with the yen and the US dollar maintaining their lead, while the antipodean currencies struggle. The British pound remains under pressure, sustaining its position as the weakest currency this week.

Commodities experienced mixed sentiment. Oil had a solid session, continuing its upward momentum from earlier in the week. On the metals front, Thursday saw some selling pressure, particularly on silver, which faced a sharp counterattack by sellers. However, Friday brings renewed buying interest. Gold, silver, palladium, and platinum are all climbing higher, with gold reaching its highest levels since mid-December. The broader trend on metals remains bullish as buyers appear determined to regain control.

European indices continue to outperform their US counterparts, a reversal of trends seen in late 2024. The DAX and CAC 40 are climbing higher, with positive sentiment sustaining throughout the week. Meanwhile, US indices are still struggling. Thursday brought sideways movement for the S&P 500, while NASDAQ futures showed slight declines. As we move into Friday, US futures are attempting a recovery, but buyers still face key resistances that need to be broken for a sustained rally.

With non-farm payrolls and Canadian job data ahead, expect volatility to pick up significantly in the latter half of the session. The data will likely determine the immediate direction for the US dollar and Canadian dollar, with broader implications for commodities and indices. Investors will also be watching metals closely to see if the bullish momentum holds, and whether oil can continue its impressive start to the year.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/market-news/friday-focus-job-data-from-us-and-canada-to-steer