Safe Havens Lead as 2025 Kicks Off

Hello traders, and welcome to the first trading session of 2025. As expected, today’s macroeconomic calendar is quite light, with only a few key data points to keep an eye on. The US unemployment claims, forecasted at 222,000, will be released later in the day alongside final manufacturing PMIs, which are expected to come in at 48.3. Additionally, crude oil inventories data will also make its way to the market. It’s worth noting that tomorrow, being the first Friday of the month, will be an unusual one as it will pass without the release of the non-farm payrolls, breaking the usual routine.

On the Forex market, the new year begins with a noticeable rally in safe-haven currencies. The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are showing significant strength, indicating a cautious tone among investors. Conversely, the Canadian Dollar is starting the year as the weakest performer, reflecting a less optimistic outlook for the currency.

Commodities are enjoying a strong start to the year, with bullish momentum evident across the board. Precious metals, including gold, silver, palladium, and platinum, are all climbing higher, supported by the weaker Canadian Dollar and a renewed sense of optimism from investors. Oil is also continuing its upward trend, adding to the positive sentiment in the energy sector.

Indices are attempting to stage a bullish reversal, though the moves remain tentative. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are showing signs of recovery, but both need to break through their mid-term downtrend lines to confirm a strong buy signal. Meanwhile, the DAX is approaching a critical psychological level at 20,000 points, a resistance that, if breached, could trigger a significant bullish wave. Although the initial moves are promising, the market will need a stronger push to solidify these bullish attempts.

As the first trading day of the year unfolds, the focus will remain on whether buyers can sustain the positive momentum. The strength in safe havens suggests caution, but the recovery attempts on indices and commodities hint at potential opportunities for bulls. While the calendar is light, the markets may still provide some interesting dynamics as traders look to establish their positions for the new year.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/market-news/safe-havens-lead-as-2025-kicks-off