Weekly Market Commentary | 03.04 – 09.04

By Tomasz Wisniewski|

Published: April 03 2023, 08:05 GMT+0

Weekly Market Commentary | 03.04 – 09.04

Curious about what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

– The first trading day of the month has already brought inflation data from Switzerland which came lower than expected (0.2% vs 0.4%)
– Today, we will get manufacturing PMIs from major economies with the ISM manufacturing PMI being the most important one

– Tuesday will be a key day for the Australian Dollar because, at the end of the Asian session, we will get an interest rate decision that will most probably see a 25bp rise
– The day will end with the JOLTS job openings from the US, where the number of 10.49M is expected

– Wednesday is another key day for the pairs from the Antipodes as this time, New Zealand will decide on the interest rate. In this case, 25bp is expected as well
– Monday was a manufacturing PMIs day and Wednesday will be a services PMIs day. All major numbers are expected to be above 50, which was not the case on Monday

– This day will be surprisingly empty with the most important data coming from Canada and the US. In both cases, it will be the job market numbers – the usual unemployment claims from the US and for Canada, it will be the employment change and unemployment rate which are normally presented on Friday, but will be moved to Thursday due to the Easter holidays

– Friday will be a very quiet day as most of the markets are closed, but it is also the first Friday of the month, meaning we will learn the NFP! With the lower liquidity, we can expect higher volatility in case of a surprising number. The consensus is on the 235K

Setups for This Week:

Primary View:
The pair is currently in a sideways move which can be described as a flag or a pennant
Monday starts with a bounce off the lower line of this formation
The price escaping the pattern will give us a proper signal – a breakout to the upside will give a signal to buy and a breakout to the downside will give a signal to sell

Primary View:
Gold started the new week with a breakout of the lower line of the pennant formation
In theory, it is a signal to sell but we are still above the important horizontal support on the 1950 USD/oz
As long as we are above it, the sell signal cannot be triggered
Alternative View:
Gold breaking the 1950 USD/oz will be an invitation to go short in the mid-term

Brent Oil
Primary View:
OPEC+ cut from Sunday sorted out the mood for the opening bell
The price created a huge bullish gap and tested the resistance below 87 USD/bbl (orange)
Currently, we see a drop, which is a typical gap-closing move
Alternative View:
Oil closing the day above the orange area will be a signal to buy but the current sentiment, because of this high opening, is rather negative