Weekly Market Commentary | 03-09.10

Monday>

– PMIs from the Eurozone for September, expected to decline again

– US ISM from the manufacturing sector for September, has analysts anticipating a slight slowdown from 52.8 to 52.2

– Several FOMC speakers, likely confirming the hawkish narrative

Tuesday>

– Another hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia is in the cards, with the main rate moving up 50 basis points to 2.85%, possibly causing volatility in the AUDUSD pair

– EU Ecofin meeting – the Eurozone’s broadest financial decision-making body. The council coordinates the economic policies of the 28 member states

– EU PPI indices for August expected to continue soaring higher

– US JOLTS job openings – market participants project a large decline from the previous month

Wednesday>

– RBNZ delivers another rate hike, bringing the Official Cash Rate from 3 to 3.5%

– OPEC+ meeting, members may decide to reduce their daily output by more than one million barrels

– US ADP employment for September, seen rising to 200,000 from 132,000 scored in August

– US ISM services for September likely falling from 56.9 to 56.0

Thursday>

– ECB monetary policy meeting accounts from the previous ECB meeting

– US initial and continuous jobless claims

Friday>

– German retail sales, with another massive drop expected for the month of August

– US labour market data, including non-farm payrolls (250,000 expected versus 315,000 previously) and the unemployment rate (3.7% projected versus 3.7% in the last month).

Setups for This Week:

DAX

Primary View:

This week will probably be decisive for DAX as the price is in a tight range between dynamic resistance and a horizontal support

Resistance is the upper line of the channel down pattern and the breakout would mean a buy signal

Support is an area around 11880 (yellow) and breakout of that line would bring us a signal to sell

CADJPY

Primary View:

On a daily chart we can see a small rectangle formed in the past few days

Rectangle is present on the major, long-term up trendline

Breakout to the downside will bring us a major sell signal

Alternative View:

Breaking the upper line of the rectangle and escaping to the upside would bring us a nice buy signal

EURAUD

Primary View:

EURAUD had a great September but now reached a key, long-term horizontal resistance on the 1.53

This may be an occasion for a mid-term bearish correction

Monday brings us a bounce, so that may be the most probable scenario at the moment

Alternative View:

The price closing a day above the orange area will be a strong buy signal