Weekly Market Commentary | 04.03 – 10.03

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!

Monday:

• Switzerland releases its inflation number early in European hours, with expectations pointing towards a rise from 0.2% to 0.5% month-on-month.

Tuesday:

• Japan is set to unveil its Tokyo Core CPI, anticipated to climb to 2.5%.
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is scheduled to deliver a speech, likely influencing JPY’s movement and investor sentiment around Japan’s monetary policy.
• The day caps off with ISM services PMIs from the U.S., expected at 52.9, offering a glimpse into the health of the U.S. services sector.

Wednesday:

• Australia will announce its GDP numbers, expected to see a 0.3% rise, providing insights into the economic recovery down under.
• The U.S. will release the ADP non-farm employment change, a precursor to the official non-farm payroll numbers.
• Canada’s interest rate decision is on the agenda, with rates predicted to hold steady at 5%.
• Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, an event closely watched for hints on future monetary policy.
• The day concludes with Jolt’s job openings from the U.S., projected at 8.9 million, reflecting the labor market’s strength.

Thursday:

• The Eurozone’s interest rate decision is expected to remain unchanged at 4.5%, with the ECB’s press conference to follow, closely watched for any policy shifts or economic outlook updates.
• Jerome Powell continues his testimony, this time before the Senate Banking Committee, potentially impacting market sentiment and USD movements.

Friday:

• The week rounds off with crucial job data from both Canada and the U.S., including the much-anticipated non-farm payrolls expected at 190,000 and the U.S. unemployment rate projected to stay at 3.7%, offering significant insights into North American economic health.

Setups for This Week:

USDJPY:

• Primary View:
  • Currently, USDJPY is experiencing a sideways movement that began in mid-February, indicating a period of consolidation.
  • The currency pair is navigating between a narrow range, capped by a resistance at 150.8 (blue line) and supported at 149.6 (green line), suggesting indecision among traders.
• Alternative View:
  • A breakout below the 149.6 support could pivot the market sentiment to bearish, signaling potential selling opportunities ahead.

Silver:

• Primary View:
  • Silver has been trading within a sideways trend since the start of the year, reflecting a balance between supply and demand forces.
  • It’s struggling to surpass a crucial resistance at $23.4 per ounce while finding support at $22 per ounce (yellow line), delineating its current trading range.
• Alternative View:
  • A breach of the $22 support level would indicate a bearish turn, potentially leading to a downward price movement.

Brent Oil:

• Primary View:
  • Brent oil showcased a bullish breakout from a symmetric triangle pattern that has confined its price action since late November.
  • This breakout above the triangle’s upper boundary signals a positive momentum shift, suggesting an uptrend continuation.
• Alternative View:
  • Should the price retract back within the confines of the triangle, it would invalidate the breakout, hinting at a false bullish signal and possibly shifting the outlook to bearish.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-04-03-10-03