Weekly Market Commentary | 08.04 – 14.04

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!

Monday:

• The week kicks off quietly, with markets awaiting a speech from SNB Chairman Jordan after the European session closes.

Tuesday:

• A rare pause in the financial calendar with absolutely no tier 1 data scheduled, giving traders a day of respite.

Wednesday:

• New Zealand’s interest rate decision is on the radar, expected to remain at 5.5%.
• The U.S. inflation figure is anticipated to tick up from 3.2% to 3.4%, adding some spice to midweek trading.
• Canada’s interest rate decision also looms, with rates forecasted to stay at 5%.
• The highlight, however, is the FOMC meeting minutes, likely to stir the pot and set the tone for the remainder of the week.

Thursday:

• The ECB steps into the fray, with analysts predicting interest rates to hold at 4.5%.
• The U.S. serves up its PPI figures, expected to ease to 0.3%, alongside the usual unemployment claims.

Friday:

• The week wraps up with the UK’s GDP expected to slightly decelerate to 0.1%.
• The U.S. closes the show with the Prelim University of Michigan consumer sentiment, projected at 79, drawing the curtain on a week of significant economic narratives.

Setups for This Week:

Silver:

• Silver’s technical landscape has shown bullish momentum, with the price breaking out from a long-term symmetric triangle pattern upward and surmounting the horizontal resistance at 25.9. This breakout serves as a significant buy signal, underscoring a positive sentiment towards the precious metal.
• The bullish scenario gets a further boost as the metal establishes above this pivotal resistance, suggesting potential for continued upward movement.

Alternative View:

• Should silver retreat back within the confines of the symmetric triangle, it would negate the buy signal, hinting at a potential downturn and offering a sell opportunity.

GBP/CHF:

• GBP/CHF is at a critical juncture, testing a major horizontal resistance at 1.15. This resistance level is crucial, providing traders with a tempting sell opportunity in the mid-term, given the currency pair’s struggle to breach this barrier.
• The current price action near this resistance could lead to heightened volatility, with a significant decision point for both bulls and bears.

Alternative View:

• A decisive break above the 1.15 resistance could flip the script, transitioning GBP/CHF from a potential sell to a compelling buy. This would signal strength and a possible shift in the medium to long-term outlook.

USD/JPY:

• USD/JPY’s recent market behavior has taken a turn, with the price dropping below an ascending triangle pattern, initially signaling a bearish outlook. However, this move appears to be a false signal or false breakout, marked by a swift reversal. The pair is now retesting a critical horizontal resistance, making this juncture pivotal.
• Overcoming this resistance could breathe new life into USD/JPY bulls, potentially leading to a resurgence in buying interest.

Alternative View:

• If the currency pair fails to break through and instead bounces off this resistance, it would maintain the bearish narrative, endorsing the sell signal and suggesting further downside potential.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-08-04-14-04