Weekly Market Commentary | 09.09 – 15.09

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!

Monday: 

• As is often the case, Monday begins on a quieter note.
• We did, however, get inflation data from China. Both consumer and producer inflation figures came in below expectations, which could impact global sentiment, especially on commodities and Asian markets.

Tuesday

• Tuesday will pick up the pace with the Claimant Count Change from the UK, providing insight into the labor market.
• A key event to watch is the speech by Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Markets will be looking for clues on the bank’s next move, especially in light of recent rate decisions.
• We could see the British Pound and Canadian Dollar move depending on how these events unfold.

Wednesday: 

• The week starts heating up on Wednesday with the GDP report from the UK, offering crucial insights into the country’s economic health.
• The highlight of the week is definitely the US Inflation Report, with expectations for inflation to drop to 2.6% on a yearly basis. This data could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions and will likely move the US Dollar, equities, and potentially even gold.

Thursday: 

• Thursday brings another major event: the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision. Markets are expecting a rate cut, and this could send the Euro into sharp moves depending on the outcome.
• At the same time, we’ll also get Producer Inflation from the US, expected at 0.2%. This will give further clarity on inflation trends in the US, complementing the consumer inflation data from the day before.

Friday:

• Friday is shaping up to be a more relaxed day, with the only notable release being the Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment from the US, expected at 68.4.

Setups for This Week:

USD/JPY

Primary View:

• The price is currently bouncing off a key horizontal support, marked by the lows from the beginning of August.
• Despite being in bearish territory due to a downside breakout from the symmetric triangle, sentiment remains cautiously positive as long as we stay above this support.

Alternative View:

• A breakout below the orange support level would signal a strong sell opportunity, as it would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend.

AUD/USD

Primary View:

• The price has broken the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern, signaling a bearish sentiment.
• As long as the price remains below the neckline, the sell signal remains intact.

Alternative View:

• A return above the neckline would invalidate the bearish setup and provide a signal to buy, suggesting that the downward move was a false breakout.

NZD/CAD

Primary View:

• Similar to AUD/USD, the price broke the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern, maintaining a bearish sentiment.
• As long as the price stays below the blue area, the sell signal remains active.

Alternative View:

• A move back above the blue area would signal a reversal and provide a strong signal to buy, negating the bearish momentum.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-09-09-15-09