Weekly Market Commentary | 1.07 – 7.07

By Tomasz Wisniewski|

Published: July 01 2024, 12:56 GMT+0

Weekly Market Commentary | 1.07 – 7.07

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!


  • German Preliminary CPI: Germany’s inflation data is expected to show a modest increase of 0.2%, which could provide insights into the broader Eurozone inflation trends.
  • U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMIs: The manufacturing sector’s health will be under scrutiny with PMIs expected at 49.2, potentially influencing the market’s view on economic growth.
  • French Parliamentary Elections: The National Rally’s narrower-than-expected victory is seen as positive for the Euro, which has been climbing higher in response.


  • Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate: The flash estimate for the Eurozone’s CPI is anticipated at 2.5%, a critical indicator of inflation that could impact ECB policy decisions.
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Speech: All eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he discusses economic outlooks and monetary policy, likely impacting market sentiment and the U.S. dollar.
  • U.S. JOLTS Job Openings: Expected at 7.86 million, this report will provide insights into labor market conditions and potential implications for future economic growth.


  • Australian Retail Sales: Expected to rise by 0.3%, this data will offer clues about consumer spending trends and economic health in Australia.
  • U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: This precursor to the official jobs report will be closely watched for signs of labor market strength or weakness.
  • Unemployment Claims: Moved from Thursday due to the holiday, this data will provide further insights into the U.S. labor market.
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes: Investors will parse these minutes for hints about future monetary policy moves.
  • ISM Services PMIs: A key indicator of the services sector’s health, these PMIs will be crucial in assessing the overall economic outlook.


  • Independence Day Holiday: U.S. markets will be closed, leading to lower trading volumes and potentially less volatility across global markets.


  • Canadian Job Data: Employment figures from Canada will be released, providing insights into the Canadian labor market.
  • U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: The most anticipated report of the week, expected at 189,000, will likely drive significant market movements and influence the outlook on the U.S. economy.


Setups for This Week:


Primary View

  • Boost from French Elections: Euro received a significant boost, leading to a decisive bounce off the lower line of the symmetric triangle marked with black lines.
  • Breakout from Descending Triangle: The price escaped from the descending triangle marked with blue lines, reinforcing positive sentiment on EUR/USD.
  • Sentiment: With these movements, the sentiment on EUR/USD is positive.

Alternative View

  • Breakout to Downside: Price breaking the lower black line will be an ultimate signal to sell.


Primary View

  • Inverse Head and Shoulders: The price created an inverse head and shoulders pattern marked with yellow color.
  • Neckline Break: Breaking the neckline marked with black, the price now shows a buy signal.
  • Current Resistance Test: The price is currently testing resistance marked with a blue line. A breakout above this resistance will be a strong buy signal.

Alternative View

  • Bearish Reversal: Price bouncing off the blue line and falling below the black neckline will signal to sell.


Primary View

  • Symmetric Triangle Break: The price escaped from the symmetric triangle marked with green lines to the downside but then bounced off the key horizontal support marked with yellow.
  • Triangle Reentry: Price moving back inside the triangle will signal a strong buy opportunity.
  • Sentiment: The sentiment remains positive if the price reenters the triangle.

Alternative View

  • Support Break: Price breaking below the yellow horizontal support will be a strong signal to sell.

Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-1-07-7-07