Weekly Market Commentary | 11.03 – 17.03

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!

Monday

• The week kicks off with a rather subdued start, yet an important update from Japan has already set a tone. Japan’s final GDP numbers trickled in at a disappointing 0.1%, falling short of the anticipated 0.3%. A gentle reminder of the fragile global economic recovery.

Tuesday

• The focus shifts to the UK with the claimant count change data expected to surface. Analysts predict a figure of around 20.3 thousand.
• Meanwhile, across the pond, the US is set to release its inflation figures. Yearly inflation rates are projected to steady at 3.1%, while the monthly figures might see a slight uptick to 0.4%. A crucial data set that could influence Federal Reserve’s next moves.

Wednesday

• A surprisingly quiet Wednesday awaits, with the spotlight on the UK once more. This time, GDP figures are in the limelight, anticipated to register at 0.2%. A positive sign amid global economic uncertainties?

Thursday

• The US takes center stage again with two significant releases. Producer’s inflation (PPI) data is on the agenda, alongside retail sales figures, expected to bolster by 0.8%. These insights could offer clues into consumer sentiment and spending habits in the world’s largest economy.

Friday

• As the week winds down, the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the US is forecasted to decline to -7.6, potentially reflecting the manufacturing sector’s current challenges.
• The week concludes with the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, with expectations set at 77.3, providing a glimpse into consumer confidence as we edge closer to year-end.

Setups for This Week:

USDCHF

Primary View:

• • The pair has broken out of an ascending channel, highlighted by blue lines, indicating a potential sell signal.
  • The current halt at the blue horizontal support line suggests a cautious stance; a confirmed breakout below this level could target the orange horizontal support for sellers.

Alternative View:

• • Should the price overcome the green horizontal resistance, it would flip the bias towards buying, suggesting an uptrend continuation.

Dow Jones

Primary View:

• • Currently encapsulated within a falling wedge pattern outlined by blue lines, suggesting a consolidation phase.
  • The emergence of a flag formation, delineated by green lines, in a shorter timeframe hints at an impending sell signal should there be a downward breakout.

Alternative View:

• • A breakout above the wedge’s upper boundary, marked by blue lines, would invalidate the bearish outlook, triggering a buy signal.

EURGBP

Primary View:

• • The week begins with a bearish gap, positioning the pair below the crucial horizontal support at 0.852, marked in orange, potentially signaling a sell opportunity.
  • The stance below this pivotal support accentuates the bearish momentum, with traders eyeing further declines.

Alternative View:

• • A reversal above the orange support line, negating the initial bearish gap, would serve as a buy signal, highlighting a false breakout scenario and shifting the sentiment towards bullish.