Weekly Market Commentary | 12-18.09

The new week starts with a positive sentiment. The EURUSD has jumped 1.5% towards a one-month high at 1.02 amid Ukraine’s offensive and ECB hawkishness.

However, there are no major macro data expected on Monday, which will likely result in lower liquidity throughout the day.

Tuesday>

– UK jobs market data, projected to worsen slightly

– German ZEW surveys for September, further downside is expected

– The headline of the day: US CPI inflation for August is predicted to decrease from 8.5% to 8.1% yearly. On the other hand, core inflation is seen rising slightly to 6.0% annualized.

Wednesday>

– UK inflation, seen rising further to double digits 10.2% year-on-year change

– EU industrial production along with EC President von der Leyen speech

– US PPI indices, with the yearly change expected to decline both for the standard and core indices

Thursday>

– NZD GDP for the second quarter, likely moving the NZDUSD pair during the Asian session

– AUD jobs market data, again, likely causing volatility in the AUDUSD pair

– US retail sales are on the agenda for later in the day, along with industrial production and capacity utilization

Friday>

– The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September is due, projected to improve slightly from 58.2 to 59.8

Setups for This Week:

DAX

Primary View:

For the past two weeks, DAX was locked inside of a pennant, close to local lows

A sideways movement finished on Friday, when the price broke three crucial resistances (green area)

Monday starts with a promising upswing and a confirmation of a buy signal from the previous trading day

Alternative View:

If the price falls below the orange area, the buy signal will be cancelled

EURJPY

Primary View:

Last week ended with a false breakout (orange) and a bounce of a crucial resistance on the 144.3 (blue)

It could lead to a major sell signal but the risk ON mode today is crushing this bearish scenario

Price decisively breaks 144.3, which brings us a proper buy signal

Alternative View:

If the price falls back below the 144.3, the buy signal will be cancelled

AUDUSD

Primary View:

Last week brought us a bounce off a key horizontal support on the 0.67 (blue)

That bounce creates a double bottom formation

The potential target is on a long-term down trendline (black)

Alternative View:

The price dropping below the blue support would be a long-term sell signal