Weekly Market Commentary | 12-18.09

By Tomasz Wisniewski|

Published: September 12 2022, 08:42 GMT+0

Weekly Market Commentary | 12-18.09

The new week starts with a positive sentiment. The EURUSD has jumped 1.5% towards a one-month high at 1.02 amid Ukraine’s offensive and ECB hawkishness.

However, there are no major macro data expected on Monday, which will likely result in lower liquidity throughout the day.



– UK jobs market data, projected to worsen slightly

– German ZEW surveys for September, further downside is expected

– The headline of the day: US CPI inflation for August is predicted to decrease from 8.5% to 8.1% yearly. On the other hand, core inflation is seen rising slightly to 6.0% annualized.



– UK inflation, seen rising further to double digits 10.2% year-on-year change

– EU industrial production along with EC President von der Leyen speech

– US PPI indices, with the yearly change expected to decline both for the standard and core indices



– NZD GDP for the second quarter, likely moving the NZDUSD pair during the Asian session

– AUD jobs market data, again, likely causing volatility in the AUDUSD pair

– US retail sales are on the agenda for later in the day, along with industrial production and capacity utilization



– The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September is due, projected to improve slightly from 58.2 to 59.8

Setups for This Week:



Primary View:

For the past two weeks, DAX was locked inside of a pennant, close to local lows

A sideways movement finished on Friday, when the price broke three crucial resistances (green area)

Monday starts with a promising upswing and a confirmation of a buy signal from the previous trading day

Alternative View:

If the price falls below the orange area, the buy signal will be cancelled


Primary View:

Last week ended with a false breakout (orange) and a bounce of a crucial resistance on the 144.3 (blue)

It could lead to a major sell signal but the risk ON mode today is crushing this bearish scenario

Price decisively breaks 144.3, which brings us a proper buy signal

Alternative View:

If the price falls back below the 144.3, the buy signal will be cancelled


Primary View:

Last week brought us a bounce off a key horizontal support on the 0.67 (blue)

That bounce creates a double bottom formation

The potential target is on a long-term down trendline (black)

Alternative View:

The price dropping below the blue support would be a long-term sell signal