Weekly Market Commentary | 14-20.11

Want to know what’s going on this week? Take a quick tour of our market news, economic updates, and trading setups to stay up-to-date and in-the-know.

Monday>

– The new week starts off quiet with speeches from two central bankers: SNB Chairman Jordan and FOMC Member Brainard

Tuesday>

– On Tuesday fundamentals will accelerate with the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Australia

– We will also find out the Empire State Manufacturing Index and PPI from US. It is expected that both numbers will rise compared to ones from the previous month

Wednesday>

– UK inflation will be presented with the number expected to be on 10.5%, which would mean a rise compared to the 10.1% reported previously

– Canadian Inflation will also hit the screen, where we’re also expecting rises compared to the previous report.

– Wednesday will bring us the US’s retail sales data, where we are expecting a reading of 0.9%, while core retail sales are expected to be on 0.5%

– That busy day will also include the Monetary Policy Report Hearings from the UK, an event that’s important for the British Pound

Thursday>

– Australian labor market will come out in front on Thursday with the Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data being expected to also rise compared to the numbers from the previous month

– Philly FED Manufacturing Index will be also presented on Thursday and the number of -6 is expected (-8.7 previously)

Friday>

– Friday will not be as busy as the previous two days. On November 18^th we’ll find out the retail sales data from UK and we will also have a speech from ECB President Lagarde.

Setups for This Week:

Dow Jones

Primary View:

On Thursday, the Dow Jones managed to break a crucial dynamic resistance – the upper line of the wedge

That, in theory, ends the sell signal and brings on a positive sentiment

After a rise like that, some kind of bearish correction should be expected but the main sentiment remains positive

Alternative View:

If the price comes back below the 38,2% Fibonacci, the buy signal will be totally wiped out

USDCAD

Primary View:

The Head and Shoulders Pattern (orange) worked like a charm and after the breakout of the neckline (23,6% Fibo) the price dropped like a rock

Currently we reached an important technical target on the 38,2% Fibonacci, which is a good place for a bullish correction

Alternative View:

Price closing a day below the 38,2% Fibo will be a very strong sell signal with a next target on the 50% retracement

NZDUSD

Primary View:

NZDUSD rose significantly in the past few weeks

Currently the price is on three important resistances, which opens a way for a bearish correction

NZDUSD is currently testing the down trendline, 38,2% Fibo and the lows from July

Alternative View:

If the price closes a day above the orange area, the buy signal will persist