Weekly Market Commentary | 15.01 – 21.01

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!

 Monday:

• The week begins on a quieter note with American traders off for Martin Luther King Day. Anticipate potentially lower volatility in the markets as U.S. markets observe the holiday.

Tuesday

• The UK’s claimant count change data is anticipated, with expectations set at 18.1K.
• Canada’s inflation figures are projected to show a decrease to -0.3% on a monthly basis, indicating potential economic shifts.
• The day concludes with the Empire State Manufacturing Index from the U.S., forecasted at -4.9, providing insights into manufacturing sector health.

Wednesday

• Industrial production from China is expected at 6.8%, offering a glimpse into the country’s industrial activity.

• GDP and retail sales figures from China will also be crucial, shedding light on the overall economic health and consumer spending trends in one of the world’s largest economies.
• From the UK, inflation data is predicted to show a slight decrease to 3.8%, a key indicator for economic policy and interest rate decisions.
• In the U.S., retail sales are expected to see a modest increase from 0.3% to 0.4%, hinting at consumer spending patterns in the world’s largest economy.

Thursday: Jobs and Unemployment Data in the Spotlight

• Australia’s job data, including employment change (expected at 15.4 thousand) and the unemployment rate (anticipated to hold steady at 3.9%), will provide insights into the labor market down under.
• Wrapping up the day, the U.S. will release its unemployment claims figures, with forecasts pointing to 204,000 claims, offering a glimpse into the employment situation stateside.

Friday: Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment to Close the Week

• The UK’s retail sales data is projected to decline to -0.5%, indicating consumer spending trends in the British economy.
• Canadian retail sales figures will also be in the spotlight, providing a comprehensive view of consumer spending habits in the country.
• The week concludes with the Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment from the U.S., expected to decrease to 69.3, reflecting the current consumer confidence and potentially influencing market movements.

Setups for This Week:

 Brent Oil

Primary View:

• The price is declining after a false breakout pattern (marked in orange) above the key horizontal resistance at $79 per barrel.
• Price is testing the mid-term uptrend line; a breakout below this line will signal a sell opportunity.

Alternative View:

• If the price breaks the green line again, it will be a bullish signal indicating a potential buy opportunity.

EURNZD

Primary View:

• Showing signs of strength, the price is rebounding off the key horizontal support at 1.75 (marked in green).
• Currently at monthly highs, if this trend continues, the target will be the yellow horizontal resistance.

Alternative View:

• A break below the green support level will trigger a sell signal.

EURUSD

Primary View:

• The price is bouncing off the key horizontal support at 1.10 (marked in blue), indicating a bearish sentiment for the coming days or weeks.

Alternative View:

• Breaking above the blue resistance level will be a bullish signal and suggest a buy opportunity.