Weekly Market Commentary | 17.04 – 23.04

By Tomasz Wisniewski|

Published: April 17 2023, 08:10 GMT+0

Weekly Market Commentary | 17.04 – 23.04

– The new week starts without any fireworks as the only tier one data will be the Emprise State Manufacturing Index expected to come at -17.7
– Tuesday will start with the GDP number from China, where a growth of 3.9% is expected
– Before the start of the European session, we will learn the Claimant Count Change from the UK
– The day will finish with the CPI data from Canada and a speech by the BoC Governor Macklem later on
– Wednesday will bring about the inflation number from the UK, where we are expecting a drop to 9.8%
– We will also learn the inflation number from the Eurozone, but this will be the final reading which almost always comes in line with expectations
– Thursday is a continuation of the inflation numbers releasing – this time from New Zealand, where analysts are expecting a small rise to 1.5%
– We will also get the usual unemployment claims from the US and an unusual speech No 2 from the BoC Governor Macklem
– We can call this Friday a PMI day as we will find out the Manufacturing and Services PMIs from Australia, France, Germany, Eurozone, the UK and US
– In addition to that, retail sales data from the UK and Canada will be published

Setups for This Week:

Primary View:
Last week, the USDCAD broke a long-term key dynamic support, the blue up-trendline
This triggers a proper signal to sell
Alternative View:
If the price comes back above the up-trendline, the sell signal will be canceled, but chances of that are limited

Primary View:
The EURJPY had an amazing week with the price triggering a long-term buy signal
The optimism stems from the fact that the price escaped a big symmetric triangle pattern (black)
Soon, we should see the EURJPY on new, long-term highs
Alternative View:
The rise is quite stretched and at some point, we should also get a bearish correction. The main up-trend should remain intact

Brent Oil
Primary View:
Last week, the price escaped this sideways move (yellow), created after the OPEC+ output cut
The price breached the horizontal resistance on the 87 USD/bbl (orange) but, apparently, the breakout was false (green)
As long as we stay below the highs from the previous week, the sentiment remains negative
Alternative View:
Oil climbing back above the green area will be a signal to go long