Weekly Market Commentary | 20.02 – 26.02

By Tomasz Wisniewski|

Published: February 20 2023, 08:44 GMT+0

Weekly Market Commentary | 20.02 – 26.02

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.



-The new week will start with the absence of American traders due to President’s Day in the US.

-Late in the evening, Australia will publish its Manufacturing and Services PMIs.



-Tuesday is a PMI day. We will receive PMIs from the Eurozone, the UK, Japan, and the US.

-We will also learn about inflation and retail sales numbers from Canada.



-Wednesday will be a key day for Antipodean currencies. Australia will publish the wage price index, while New Zealand is expected to increase rates by 50bp along with the RBNZ statement and press conference.

-The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will also be released, which could shake the markets.

-The G20 meetings will start on Wednesday and last until the end of the week.



-Thursday will start with the final inflation data in the Eurozone, which is expected to rise to 8.6%.

-We will also receive the Prelim GDP number, which is expected to be 2.9%.



-Traders of the yen will be anticipating a speech from Mr. Ueda, who is about to be appointed as the new BoJ governor.

-Another event to watch is the Core PCE Price Index from the US, which is expected to be 0.4%.



Trading Setups for This Week:



Primary View:

Since the end of last year, the price has been creating a triangle pattern.

The triangle ended in the previous week with a breakout to the upside.

Although the breakout was mild and the price created a wedge (blue) straight away, the buy signal is still here.

Alternative View:

If the price comes back below the green horizontal support, we will get a proper signal to sell.



Primary View:

The pair started February with a bearish breakout from the wedge (blue) and a signal to sell.

Friday ended with a nice shooting star candle, which promotes a further drop.

As long as we stay below the yellow resistance, we have a strong signal to sell.

Alternative View:

EURCHF climbing back above the yellow resistance will be a proper signal to go long.



Primary View:

February has been a terrible month for the EURUSD with the price going down almost every single day.

Friday could have brought a stop to that as the price created a nice hammer on the 38.2% Fibonacci.

As long as we stay above that support, the mid-term sentiment is positive.

Alternative View:

If the main pair drops below 38.2%, it would mean that the February weakness will continue for a longer time.


Source: https://www.axiory.com/analytics/weekly-market-commentary/weekly-market-commentary-20-02-26-02