Weekly Market Commentary | 20.03 – 26.03

By Tomasz Wisniewski|

Published: March 20 2023, 07:22 GMT+0

Weekly Market Commentary | 20.03 – 26.03

Curious about what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know.

– Today’s calendar is empty and traders will most probably try and digest the weekend’s news of UBS agreeing to purchase the battered Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion

– Tuesday will bring the inflation data from Canada which is expected to decline slightly compared to the previous month
– We will also get a speech from ECB’s Christine Lagarde. It will be interesting to hear her remarks on the state of the banking sector in Europe

– Wednesday will begin with the inflation number from the UK, where we are also expecting a drop – below 10% in this case
– The key event of this week, or even this month, is the one at the FED, where we are expecting a 25bp rise in interest rates. Apart from the decision itself, we will also get the statement, press conference, and economic projections. Each and every one of those events will be extremely influential

– The market will not slow down on Thursday, as the European session shall start with an interest rate decision from the SNB. The rising inflation will probably force them to raise the rates to 1.5%
– A few hours after that, we should witness another rise from the BoE and this one should be smaller – 25bp

– Friday will not be any less busy. We will finish the week with a PMI festival – major world economies publishing their manufacturing and services PMIs
– We will also find out the retail sales numbers from the UK and Canada

Setups for This Week:

Primary View:
On indices, the most important technical change is probably happening here with DAX
The price is currently breaking the key horizontal support around the 14800 points (yellow)
If sellers manage to close the week below the yellow area, we will get a proper signal to sell
Alternative View:
If the price makes a bullish reversal pattern in this area, we should get a legitimate signal to go long

Primary View:
The breakout from the symmetric triangle (black) brought here a proper signal to go short
The price collapsed, but last week brought a bullish correction
The correction came to an end after testing the 0.677 resistance (blue), which is currently a key level here
Alternative View:
The price coming back above the blue area would bring a signal to buy

Primary View:
After escaping the symmetric triangle to the upside, USDCAD makes itself comfortable above the 1.368 support (green)
Currently, we have a flat correction but as long as we stay above the green area, the sentiment remains positive
Alternative View:
USDCAD dropping below the green support would be a proper signal to go short