Weekly Market Commentary | 23.10 – 29.10

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!

Monday

Shhh! The start of our week is one of tranquil reflection. The macro calendar stands empty, like a canvas waiting for a splash of colour. With a lack of economic data to focus on, traders might lean into technical patterns instead. While the data calendar might be on mute, the global stage is anything but quiet. The escalating conflict in the Middle East will likely resonate in the market’s heartbeat.

Tuesday

• Claimant Count Change, UK: A little environmental update from our friends across the pond.
• PMIs Everywhere! The spotlight is on manufacturing and services PMIs from major Eurozone economies and the U.S. Notably, almost every PMI, barring Germany’s flash services PMI, seems set to lurk under 50. A significant boundary for this kind of data, 50 is the magic number that separates growth from contraction.

Wednesday

• Inflation, Australia: The forecast suggests a gentle uptick, from 5.2% to a modest 5.4%.
• Interest Rate Decision, Canada: Most are betting on a steady ship, expecting rates to remain anchored at 5%.
• Central Banker Chats: Grab your popcorn! The ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are set to grace us with their insights.

Thursday

• Interest Rate Decision, Eurozone: Again, stability seems to be the theme with rates likely holding firm at 4.5%.
• U.S. GDP: The U.S. could boast a robust 4.3% rise, a testament to its economic vibrancy.
• Durable Goods Orders, U.S.: The projections are hovering around 1.6%.
• ECB Press Conference: No rate decision is complete without a commentary! The ECB will elucidate on its earlier decision, surely a must-watch.

Friday

• Inflation, Tokyo: The forecast stands at 2.5%. Quite a topic, given the global inflationary trends.
• U.S. Data Pack:
  • Core PCE Price Index: Anticipated at 0.3%.
  • Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: With an expected figure of 63, it’ll give us an idea of the American consumer’s mood as we close the week.

Setups for This Week:

EURUSD

• Primary View:
  • Sideways moves have dominated the scene for weeks, making the price resemble a well-rehearsed waltz.
  • An escape act! Last week, the price tiptoed out of its downward channel but seemed to lose its rhythm soon after.
  • The spotlight’s on two key players: a green-tinted horizontal resistance and a dynamic support draped in red. Breaking the green ceiling? That’s our cue to buy.
• Alternative View:
  • Should the price dip below our red uptrend line, it’d be our siren song to sell.

DAX

• Primary View:

• • The past three performances have been, well, dramatic – starring three imposing bearish candles. It’s a gloomy act.
  • All eyes are on the 38.2% Fibonacci, almost like a beacon in this bearish storm. And the forecast? We might just be visiting it soon.
• Alternative View:
  • If the price finds its way back within the snug confines of the wedge, we might just catch a ray of optimism.

GBPCHF

• Primary View:

• • Flashback to two Fridays ago: the bearish breakout from its long-standing sideways saga was like a dramatic end of a suspense novel.
  • The previous week? Pure bearish dominance. But this week? It’s like the plot twist in a thriller – a sudden bullish correction!
  • While the short-term vibes are pretty upbeat, we’re watching this story unfold with bated breath.
• Alternative View:
  • Here’s the cliffhanger: should the price draft a new low – be it weekly, monthly, or yearly – it’d be our sign. The bullish interlude would be over, ushering in the bear’s encore.