Weekly Market Commentary | 26.02 – 03.03

Curious to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up-to-date and in the know!

Monday

• The week kicks off softly, with eyes on the U.S. as new home sales data is anticipated. Market watchers eagerly await the figure, expected to land at 680,000, offering clues on the housing market’s health amidst evolving economic conditions.

Tuesday

• The spotlight remains firmly on the U.S. with a flurry of significant releases. Durable goods orders are projected to take a dip to -4.7%, stirring discussions on manufacturing sector vitality. Adding to the day’s financial discourse, CB consumer confidence is forecasted at 114.8, providing a pulse on consumer sentiment.

Wednesday

• Shifting gears to a global perspective, Wednesday heralds inflation updates from Australia, expected to inch upwards to 3.6%. The same day, New Zealand’s interest rate decision could see rates holding steady at 5.5%, with global investors keenly tuned in. The U.S. prelim GDP data, anticipated at 3.3%, will cap off the day, offering fresh insights into economic growth.

Thursday

• The narrative turns to Europe with German prelim CPI expected at 0.5%, setting the stage for inflation discussions. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s GDP, expected at 0.2%, and a suite of data from North America, including Canada’s GDP and the U.S. core PCE price index at 0.4%, will provide a comprehensive view of economic health. U.S. unemployment claims, anticipated at 209,000, will further enrich the day’s economic canvas.

Friday

• Friday, devoid of the usual NFP excitement, still promises intrigue with China’s manufacturing PMI slated at 49.1 and the Caixin manufacturing PMI at a more optimistic 50.7. The day progresses with the Eurozone’s CPI flash estimate at 2.5%, setting the tone for inflation discourse. The week concludes with the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI at 49.5 and the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 79.6, providing a final dash of economic sentiment to mull over the weekend.

Setups for This Week:

AUD/JPY

Primary View:

• The price is currently breaking the long-term uptrend line marked with a black line.
• This is a sell signal, with the target being on the yellow horizontal support.

Alternative View:

• Price coming back above the black line would be a signal to go long.

EUR/CHF

Primary View:

• The price is heading higher after creating an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
• For the buy signal, we need to see the breakout of the black downtrend line, then the target would be on the yellow horizontal resistance.

Alternative View:

• Price bouncing off the black downtrend line would be a short mid-term signal to sell.

Brent Oil

Primary View:

• The price is going lower after bouncing off the upper line of the symmetric triangle pattern.
• The target is on the lower line of the symmetric triangle pattern.

Alternative View:

• Price breaking the upper line would be a signal to buy.