Weekly Market Commentary | 31.10-06.11

By Tomasz Wisniewski|

Published: October 31 2022, 08:09 GMT+0

Weekly Market Commentary | 31.10-06.11

Want to know what’s happening on the markets this week? Take a quick tour of the latest news, economic updates, and trading setups that will keep you up to date and in the know.


– The last trading day in October brought us PMIs from China that were weaker than expected, and retail sales from Japan and Australia that were better than expected

– Monday doesn’t have any Tier-1 data on the calendar but traders may be interested in the CPI and GDP numbers from the Eurozone as well as retail sales from Switzerland


– The first day of November will definitely be busy on pairs from Antipodes. Australia will most probably see another (small) rise in interest rates and New Zealand will publish data from its job market.

– Between those two, traders will find out the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings in US


– Wednesday is all about the FED and another rise in interest rates. This time, markets expects a jumbo rise of 75bp, anything less than that can be a significant blow to the USD

– Wednesday will also bring us a pack of PMI data from the Eurozone. Most of the numbers are expected to be below 50, which means a contraction


– On Thursday, the focus will be on the bank of England, where also 75bp rise is expected

– Traders may also be interested in inflation from Switzerland and the ISM Services PMI in the US


– This will be the first Friday in November, so naturally we’ll need to get ready for data from the job markets in the United States and Canada. Analysts are expecting a mediocre number of 200k jobs created and a slight rise in the unemployment rate (3,5% -> 3,6%)

– Before the NFP, we will have a warm up with the Services PMIs from Europe, where again, the vast majority is expected to be below 50


Setups for This Week:



Primary View:

Last week was great for indices with most of them making new, mid-term highs

On Friday, DAX managed to break the long-term down trendline (green)

The price holding above will mean a proper, long-term buy signal

Alternative View:

If the price comes back below the down trendline (green), the buy signal will be cancelled


Primary View:

The price is currently testing an absolutely key horizontal resistance on the weekly chart. This is the area above 1.58, which had been a great support since 2016

It may be a great occasion to take some profits from the recent upswing. Sentiment in the short-term may turn into a negative one

Alternative View:

The price jumping above the resistance would mean another, long-term buy signal


Primary View:

CADJPY is inside of the ascending triangle pattern formation, which promotes a breakout to the upswing

CADJPY breaking the 110.1 will be a proper buy signal, the same in case of a bounce from the lower line of the triangle (black) or the horizontal support on the 107 (green)

Alternative View:

The price breaking the black up trendline will cancel this bullish formation and bring us a signal to sell