Markets preview 1.7.2020

European stocks opened slightly lower on Wednesday, with the second half of the year starting with worries about the Covid-19 outbreak still prominent even as data releases offer hope of a global economic recovery.

However, the strong rally from March lows brought indices sharply higher, and US indices experienced the best quarter since 1987. But since June’s highs, equities have been consolidating, and we need to post new swing highs for the bullish trend to continue. Otherwise, risks are mounting for a sell-off as COVID cases continue to climb worldwide. 

From macro data news, the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI improved further in June and printed 51.2, up from 50.7 in May. That was the highest reading since December 2019.

Later in the day, German retail sales and labor market data are due, which could influence the EUR and the German DAX index. 

During the US session, the ADP employment report is expected to show 3,000K new jobs for June, up from 2,760K in May. Moreover, the manufacturing ISM should improve markedly to 49.5 from 43.1 previously. Good data could be positive for the greenback and the US stocks as well. 

Meanwhile, the US oil managed to jump above the 40 USD threshold as yesterday’s data showed a sizeable crude draw from inventories.