The EURUSD pair has been in a downtrend since 2008-2009, despite some ongoing volatility during the Finacial crisis.Since then, it has been undermined mainly by the EU problems, and the rate difference also helped the USD over the EUR.

However, now it looks like this long-term trend could be finally over as the EURUSD pair has broken above the bearish trend line from 2008 highs. That means the long-term downtrend could be over, and a possible retracement higher might occur soon. 

From the medium-term perspective, the key resistance could be seen at 2018 highs of 1.25, but on the way there, the euro has to clear another psychological level of 1.20, where this year’s highs are located. 

That is our preferred scenario as fundamentals point to further weakness in the USD. Long-term predictions are impossible to make, but the EURUSD pair might rise toward the 1.35-1.40 zone in the next two years, according to the technical analysis.

Alternatively, if the euro drops back below the trend line, currently at 1.1500, the bearish trend might be renewed, targeting post-lockdown lows in the 1.08 region. 



About Author

Peter Bukov

Peter comes from a background in corporate finance which began in 2013 when he completed the Corporate Finance Program at the University of Economics in Bratislava. He’s been actively involved in the market sector since 2008 and got his hands-on experience in trading in 2011. His experience in finance and trading continues not only as a market analyst at Axiory Intelligence but also through his studies to obtain a degree in Capital Markets. The study is in line with MIFID II regulations and is under the supervision of the European Regulator ESMA, which strongly emphasizes ethics and morale in investing and working with a client.

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